Forecast Updates for Hurricane Season 2025

ashleyballard
May 21
3 min read

Updated: 5 days ago

NOAA is expanding and improving tropical cyclone forecast tools for 2025, with earlier warnings, inland risk visuals, and updated storm surge and wind guidance. In this post, we break down what’s new for 2025 and how Adiabat helps organizations apply these updates to make better weather-driven decisions.

Why Product Updates Matter for Hurricane Season 2025

For the 2025 hurricane season the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and the National Weather Service (NWS) are extending and improving forecast products related to tropical cyclone forecast products and adjusting issuance criteria for potential tropical cyclones.

Each of these updates represents a shift toward earlier, clearer, and more spatially aware risk communication. Whether it's highlighting inland wind threats, anticipating surf hazards, or extending wind forecasts, NHC's 2025 enhancements help users translate forecasts into actions.

What Changes to Hurricane Forecasts are Expected?

Updated issuance criteria for Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) advisory products.

What's new: A Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) is a disturbance that is no Advisories for this type of system were previously only able to be issued 24 hours in advance, but the NHC can now issues these up to 72 hours in advance, even without the need for immediate land-based watches/warnings.

Impact: This enables earlier public awareness and decision-making for threats likely to develop. This proactive messaging reflects greater confidence in early modeling and increases transparency.

Extension of hurricane-force wind radii forecasts.

What's new: Forecasts for 74+ mph (64+ knot) wind radii will now be extended past 48 hours (2-days) to 72 hours (3-days). Wave field products will use 4-meter thresholds instead of 12 feet to align more directly with international standards.
Impact: Earlier and more spatially detailed information on dangerous winds supports more confident routing and scheduling. These wind forecasts are available in real time in GIS formats, supporting integration into operational dashboards and planning tools.

Probabilistic Storm Surge for Hawaiian Islands

What's new: The Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) model will now include the Hawaiian Islands for the first time, using weather model ensemble simulations to provide water height guidance based on forecast uncertainty.
Impact: Access to surge uncertainty helps guide evacuation planning and public messaging for the Hawaiian Islands. High-resolution GIS products (inundation maps, storm surge watch/warning graphics) are anticipated in 2026.

Reduced size of the tropical storm forecast error cone.

What's new: The 2025 Atlantic and East Pacific forecast error cone will be 3–10% smaller and for the eastern North Pacific basin, be about 5–10% smaller than in 2024.
Impact: A smaller cone improves the accuracy of perceived risk areas and reduces unnecessary alarm in places not expected to be impacted. These updated cone sizes are used in real-time shapefiles available from NHC, keeping spatial products aligned with official forecast uncertainty.

Continuation of the experimental cone graphic, with the addition of inland watches and warnings.

What's new: Inland tropical storm and hurricane watches/warnings will appear in an experimental version of the cone graphic, using new symbology - pictured below.
Impact: Clearer visualization of inland threats allows better messaging and earlier coordination, particularly for non-coastal counties reducing misunderstanding that only coastal areas are at risk from wind. This change sets the stage for future inland-focused data overlays.

Prototype for the new 2025 experimental cone graphic with inland watches and warnings.

Preparing for Hurricane Season 2025

With the National Hurricane Center rolling out powerful new products for 2025, from inland warnings and probabilistic storm surge to GIS-ready extended wind forecasts, the tools for risk awareness have never been better. But knowing a forecast exists isn’t the same as knowing what to do with it.

That’s where Adiabat comes in.

We help clients translate these complex data streams into clear, actionable insights tailored to their operations, assets, and decisions. Whether you're a transportation agency, utility, or private-sector risk team, our experts provide guidance with custom geospatial forecasts, scenario planning, and communication-ready graphics.

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Read more about additional changes and updates for the 2025 Hurricane Season using the following sources.